Mathematical Models of Vector‐Borne Diseases in Florida

Grant Winners

Dean

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases (VBD), including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Asia, and elsewhere. Recent epidemics of VBD have heightened the need to understand the geographical spread of diseases. Additionally, we lack a mechanistic understand of how climate variability in temperature and precipitation affect the epidemic magnitude. We first propose a multi-scale multi-patch model for Zika virus to examine how the dispersal of individuals affect the transmission dynamics through mathematical and numerical analyses of the model. We will then incorporate climate changes as a strong drive of VBD transmission to this model and validate the model by fitting the human data on Zika virus in Florida. The objectives are to better understand the factors that contributed to the geographical spread of Zika among multiple regions and its epidemic size during the 2016 outbreak and to be better prepared to respond to reemerging arboviruses such as dengue virus, chikungunya virus and yellow fever virus, as well as similar arboviruses yet to emerge.